01 / 03·Task
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Task structure

Common events form dense cliques; rare events sit on a sparse chain that links the cliques into one cycle. Use the chunk-size control that appears at the bottom of the screen while this block is in view to change how rare the rare events are.

Proposed: hybrid cyclic temporal structure with rare events setting
Notation
chunkChunk (size adjustable)
Common events
arrowDirected connections
Rare events
Connectivity Matrix
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Markov Chain (Groundtruth)
Per-Event Probability
Notation
chunkChunk (size adjustable)
Common events
arrowDirected connections
Rare events
Connectivity Matrix
Markov Chain (Groundtruth)
Per-Event Probability
Notation
chunkChunk (size adjustable)
Common events
arrowDirected connections
Rare events
Connectivity Matrix
Markov Chain (Groundtruth)
Per-Event Probability

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Return to the Task design section of the results page, or scroll on to see how input sequences are generated from this chain.

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Input Generation

How sequences are generated from the Markov chain, and how performance is measured.

Random Walker
GROUND TRUTH
Markov Chain Structure
LIVE WALKER
Directed Experience Provided
Event Rasters (Sequence) & Probabilities
LIVE WALKER
Event Raster
CommonRare

LIVE
Per-Event Probability
Performance Measurements
Lv1. UNCONDITIONAL
Common vs Rare (Combined)
LIVE
Estimation Deviation of Rare Event over Time
> 0 over-estimated< 0 under-estimated
Lv2. CONDITIONAL
Per-Bucket Transition Probability
INPUTGT (translucent)
LIVE
KL Divergence

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Return to the Input generation section of the results page, or scroll on to the two simulation case studies.

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Simulation

The internal model has been exposed to a limited set of input samples during training. After that, given a short random cue, the network begins to autonomously simulate, replaying what it has seen through its learned representation. However, this vanilla replay process has a problem. Looking at the rare-event estimation deviation, the model either over-estimates or under-estimates them. The question now becomes: how can we correct the estimation errors?

Simulation Pipeline
Simulation pipeline flowchart
Trial case study 1: Over-estimation
Ground truth
Prior Belief
Likelihood
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.07
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.05
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-.62
Posterior
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Live simulation
SimGT (translucent)
Trial case study 2: Under-estimation
Ground truth
Prior Belief
Likelihood
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.12
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.19
.59
Posterior
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Live simulation
SimGT (translucent)

Continue reading

Back on the results page: what happens to these two cases as the noise level sweeps from zero to high, and how the other parameters behave.

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